Washington: A hundred days into Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the promised end to the war in Ukraine has not materialized. Instead, the balance of power has shifted, with the United States moving closer to Russia, leaving Ukraine in a weakened position.
From Kyiv’s perspective, these first months of Trump’s presidency have brought disappointment, humiliation, and anxiety about the future of crucial American support. From Moscow’s, they have facilitated a resumption of dialogue with Washington at a level almost beyond expectation.
Contrary to Trump’s initial promises, his early days have yielded only fragile agreements limited to the energy sector and the Black Sea, with no real impact on the deadly strikes and intense fighting in Ukraine. This is despite a 30-hour truce announced by Vladimir Putin for the Easter weekend.
The situation on the battlefield remains largely unchanged. Military aid granted to Kyiv by the previous administration has resumed after a brief suspension. However, no new assistance is being negotiated under the Trump presidency. And Ukraine has virtually lost its bargaining chip in any potential talks: control of a small portion of Russia’s Kursk region, now almost entirely retaken by the Russian army.
“Ukrainians still hear air raid sirens every day, see bombs, and watch people get killed,” summarizes Tymofiï Mylovanov, president of the Kyiv School of Economics.
The most significant change has been in rhetoric. Trump has repeatedly echoed elements of the Russian narrative of events. He has also vilified Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, delivering an unprecedented Oval Office rebuke in February. In April, Trump renewed his attacks days after one of the conflict’s deadliest Russian strikes in Sumy. “You don’t start a war against someone 20 times bigger than you,” he said, referencing Zelensky and the conflict triggered by the Russian invasion.
Trump has not only directed soft words toward Vladimir Putin. He has threatened sanctions, expressed “fury” at him, and called on Moscow to “move.” However, the tone remains far more conciliatory than before. And the Russian president appears less isolated than ever. Russian-American negotiations have taken place, and envoys from each country have visited the other. The Kremlin has hailed “intensive” contacts and “constructive” dialogue.
For Russians interviewed by AFP near Moscow, all of this carries a taste of hope. Alissa, a 20-year-old waitress, believes “everything will be fine” for Russia, “thanks” to the discussions between Trump and Putin. She hopes for “peace,” but also for the return of Western brands that left at the start of the invasion, like “McDonald’s.” “There is finally hope that this whole conflict will stop,” says Efim Semenikhine, a 48-year-old musician. According to a poll by the independent Levada Center, the image of the United States has “significantly improved” recently.
In Ukraine, the tone is different. In Sumy, soldier Oleksandr takes advantage of a brief respite and a ray of sunshine. At the start of Trump’s presidency, he had a “negative” opinion of him, the 22-year-old soldier told AFP. And now? “It remains so,” he says, skeptical of what he sees as a “smooth talker.” In 100 days, things have “only gotten worse” for Sumy, adds Anna Klychkina, 29, who walks with her daughter in the city traumatized by the strike that killed at least 35 people on April 13. The strike followed another attack that killed about twenty people in Kryvyi Rih, including nine children. Zelensky recently stated that the number of air attacks in Ukraine “is increasing.”
Vladimir Putin is accused of playing for time to capitalize on his position of strength. Although he reiterates his desire to negotiate, he has rejected the unconditional ceasefire demanded by Trump and accepted by Kyiv. “Putin has not granted a single concession so far,” notes Tymofiï Mylovanov.
However, a Russian victory on the battlefield seems distant. While Ukraine is indeed struggling on its own territory and clings only to tiny pieces of Russian territory, Moscow’s advance, at the cost of enormous human losses, slowed in March for the fourth consecutive month, according to AFP’s analysis of data provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
For Tymofiï Mylovanov, Ukraine’s hope could also come from the EU. He believes the American reversal has forced Europeans to be “more realistic” and strengthen their support.