Moroccan Sahara: Washington Institute Sees an Opening to Shift Algeria’s Position

A report by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy highlights a strategic opportunity to encourage Algeria to reconsider its stance on the Moroccan Sahara issue, leveraging the country’s internal vulnerabilities and its desire to strengthen ties with the United States.

The report, titled “Strategic U.S. Engagement with Algeria,” argues that Algeria’s longstanding support for the Polisario Front is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, especially as the international community converges around Morocco’s autonomy plan as a serious and realistic framework for resolving the conflict.

It points to growing economic challenges, waning enthusiasm among Algeria’s youth, and shifting diplomatic priorities as factors that may prompt Algerian officials to reevaluate the strategic benefits of backing the Polisario, particularly if such support obstructs rapprochement with Washington.

The report also highlights that Algeria’s official position of not being a party to the conflict is losing credibility. By refusing to engage at the negotiating table, Algeria risks diplomatic isolation and effectively becomes an obstacle to a lasting political solution.

The Washington Institute suggests that the U.S. could use its influence to encourage Algeria to revise its stance by offering an enhanced strategic partnership encompassing security, energy, and regional stability. Notably, recent agreements for shale gas exploration between Algerian state oil company Sonatrach and American firms such as ExxonMobil underscore potential areas for cooperation.

The report underscores that Algeria’s continued support for the Polisario no longer yields clear international benefits; instead, it fuels tensions with European partners like France and complicates relations with potential allies such as the United States. Meanwhile, Morocco’s autonomy plan, backed by the U.S., Spain, Germany, France, and Gulf countries, gains ground as the only realistic path out of the crisis, presenting Algeria with a diplomatic window to reclaim a role as a regional stability actor.

The American think tank calls for a frank strategic dialogue with Algeria that recognizes its potential role in regional security and counterterrorism, while emphasizing the need for a constructive stance on the Sahara dossier. Such engagement could transform latent rivalry into a partnership of influence in a geopolitically volatile region.

In conclusion, the report considers that Algeria’s easing of its position is possible, especially if the U.S. provides diplomatic and economic guarantees that compensate for a partial retreat in the Sahara issue.

Algeria’s strategic importance stems from its pivotal role in regional security—particularly in the Sahel—its energy geopolitics, and its place in the global power competition involving China and Russia. Strengthening ties would support counterterrorism efforts, ensure stability in Europe, and counterbalance Chinese and Russian influence.

The report outlines two possible scenarios for Algeria’s future: either maintaining the status quo with a closed political system, heavy dependence on fossil fuels, dominant military influence, and a disillusioned youth—which would sustain fragile stability—or pursuing gradual opening through deeper cooperation with the U.S. in energy, security, education, and economic diversification, potentially transforming Algeria into a key strategic partner.

To this end, the think tank recommends that U.S. leaders pursue and formalize bilateral dialogue across multiple sectors—including security, energy, health, and education—to build a partnership grounded in mutual respect. This includes consolidating security cooperation to leverage Algeria’s role in the Sahel, supporting national energy development through American investments, and promoting cultural exchanges to enhance the image of the U.S. model in competition with China.

About محمد الفاسي