فاس نيوز ميديا جريدة الكترونية جهوية تعنى بشؤون و أخبار جهة فاس مكناس – متجددة على مدار الساعة
The Strait of Hormuz has once again become a focal point of geopolitical tension, with Iranian officials threatening closure in response to Israeli strikes. However, despite the dramatic rhetoric, experts argue that Iran is unlikely to follow through on these threats due to compelling economic and strategic reasons that would make such an action counterproductive to Tehran’s own interests.
The Economic Suicide Scenario
Iran’s Critical Dependence on the Strait
Iran’s economy is fundamentally dependent on the very waterway it threatens to close. Roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz each year, representing approximately 83 percent of all Iranian exports. With oil export revenues accounting for some 85% of all Iranian government revenue, blocking the strait would essentially cut off Iran’s economic lifeline.
The country’s geographic reality compounds this dependency. Nearly all of Iran’s oil export terminals and large ports are located within the Persian Gulf, making the Strait of Hormuz essential for Iran’s economic well-being. Iran’s only major oceanic port, Chah Bahar, lacks deepwater piers capable of handling large oil tankers or pipeline infrastructure connecting it to Iran’s oil network.
Current Economic Pressures
Iran is already facing severe economic challenges that make the prospect of self-imposed isolation even more devastating. The Iranian rial has lost half of its value over the past six months, and the country is grappling with chronic inflation standing at 32%. With renewed U.S. sanctions under the Trump administration targeting Iran’s oil exports, the regime can ill afford to voluntarily cut off its remaining revenue streams.
The China Factor: Alienating Tehran’s Biggest Customer
China’s Massive Oil Imports from Iran
China has emerged as Iran’s economic lifeline, purchasing approximately 90% of Iran’s crude exports. In March 2025, Chinese refineries purchased 1.91 million barrels of Iranian crude daily, representing a significant portion of China’s 11 million barrels per day oil imports. This relationship has provided Iran with crucial revenue despite international sanctions.
Beijing’s Strategic Interests
China’s energy security depends heavily on stable oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to recent data, 44 percent of China’s oil imports come from Persian Gulf states, including the 1.5 million barrels per day of Iranian crude. Additionally, Qatar provides a quarter of China’s imported liquefied natural gas, all of which must pass through the Strait.
An oil price spike resulting from a Strait closure would directly contradict China’s economic interests. As Ellen Wald, President of Transversal Consulting, noted: “China does not want the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf to be disrupted in any way, and China does not want the price of oil to rise”. Such a move would risk bringing “the full weight of their economic power to bear on Iran”.
Military Reality: The U.S. Naval Presence
The Fifth Fleet’s Deterrent Power
The U.S. Navy maintains a substantial presence in the region through the Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain. This force has been specifically tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the area and ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait. Recent expansions have doubled the size of the Bahrain naval base at a cost of $580 million, demonstrating long-term U.S. commitment to the region.
Advanced Maritime Surveillance
The U.S. has significantly enhanced its capabilities in the region, integrating uncrewed systems with traditional naval assets. Seven task forces under the Fifth Fleet now operate with 12 different uncrewed platforms for “manned-unmanned teaming” operations, specifically tracking Iranian Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy ships around the Strait.
Historical Precedent
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait over the past two decades but has never followed through. The presence of international naval forces, particularly the U.S. Fifth Fleet, has consistently served as a deterrent to such actions.
Global Economic Consequences That Hurt Iran’s Allies
Impact on Asian Energy Markets
The closure would devastate energy markets across Asia, where Iran’s key allies and trading partners are located. According to the International Energy Agency, around 70% of oil passing through the Strait is bound for Asia, with China, India, and Japan among the largest recipients. India is even more dependent on Middle Eastern energy than China, making it particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions.
LNG Market Disruption
Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, sends almost all of its LNG through the Strait of Hormuz. With China having signed a landmark $60 billion, 27-year LNG agreement with Qatar, any disruption would severely impact this crucial energy relationship. The analysis shows that a disruption could result in a daily loss of approximately 310 million cubic meters of LNG, with liquefaction capacities outside the Persian Gulf nearly at their limits.
Expert Analysis: The Self-Defeating Nature of Closure
Dr. Anas Alhajji’s Assessment
Dr. Anas Alhajji, a world-renowned energy markets expert and managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC, has extensively analyzed Iran’s strategic position. His expertise in oil market outlook, energy geopolitics, and energy security provides crucial insights into why Iran would be unlikely to close the Strait. As quoted in the analysis, “Their friends will suffer more than their enemies… so it’s very hard to see that happening.”
Economic Impact Assessment
Current analysis suggests that while Iran has the military capability to disrupt traffic through fast boats, submarines, and missiles, doing so would provoke retaliation from Western powers and their allies. The economic consequences would be particularly severe for Iran itself, given that oil exports account for approximately 20-25% of Iran’s GDP.
Alternative Routes: Limited but Existing
Pipeline Alternatives
While the Strait of Hormuz remains critical, some alternative routes exist. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have developed bypass pipelines, with around 2.6 million barrels per day of unused capacity from existing pipelines that could circumvent Hormuz. However, this represents barely one-quarter of the typical daily volume transiting the Strait.
Strategic Limitations
Despite these alternatives, the limited capacity means that any significant disruption would still cause substantial global economic impact. The International Energy Agency estimates that only 4.2 million barrels per day of crude oil can be rerouted via overland routes.
Current Regional Dynamics
Recent Tensions and Measured Responses
Following the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, cargo movement through the Strait has shown only minor decreases, with 111 cargo ships sailing through on June 15 compared to 116 on June 12. The main hindrance has been signal jamming rather than physical blockade, indicating Iran’s preference for limited disruption rather than complete closure.
Avoiding Energy Infrastructure Targets
Notably, the most oil-price-sensitive sites, including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s major Kharg Island export terminal, have been deliberately spared in recent conflicts. This suggests a mutual understanding among all parties about the catastrophic consequences of targeting critical energy infrastructure.
Conclusion: Economic Logic Prevails
The evidence strongly suggests that Iran is unlikely to block the Strait of Hormuz, despite repeated threats. The action would represent economic suicide for a country already struggling under sanctions and economic pressure. More critically, it would alienate Iran’s most important ally and customer, China, while inviting military retaliation from the United States and its allies.
As energy expert analysis indicates, the closure would harm Iran’s friends more than its enemies, making it a strategically counterproductive move. While the threat serves as a useful diplomatic tool, the economic and strategic realities make actual implementation highly unlikely. Iran’s survival depends on the very trade routes it threatens to close, creating a fundamental contradiction that experts believe will prevent such drastic action.
