فاس نيوز ميديا جريدة الكترونية جهوية تعنى بشؤون و أخبار جهة فاس مكناس – متجددة على مدار الساعة
The recent escalation of military tensions between Iran and Israel has sparked significant concerns in global markets, particularly in the energy sector, where oil prices surged sharply by over 7%. This marked the largest single-day increase since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022.
Strait of Hormuz: The Lifeline of Global Energy
The primary reason this conflict has such a profound impact on oil prices lies in the strategic location of the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the world’s consumed oil passes daily. Any threat to close this vital passage would directly disrupt oil supplies, causing immediate price spikes and widespread market anxiety.
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and is often described by experts as holding the “key to the tap,” since even the slightest threat of closing the strait can push oil prices to very high levels, recently surpassing $90 per barrel.
Comparison with the Russia-Ukraine War
Unlike the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which did not directly affect a critical maritime oil export route, the Iran-Israel tensions pose a direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz, making its impact on global markets far more dangerous and sensitive.
Effects of Military Escalation on Markets
Israeli airstrikes targeting sensitive Iranian sites, including nuclear facilities and missile production centers, coupled with Iranian retaliatory drone attacks, have significantly heightened tensions, raising fears of a broader regional conflict.
This escalation has driven oil prices to record highs, with Brent crude exceeding $74 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) above $73. Additionally, the cost of using oil tankers has risen due to increased risks in the Gulf region.
Potential Implications for the Global Economy
Experts warn that continued escalation could disrupt oil and gas supply chains, raising energy costs and fueling concerns about a possible global economic recession, especially as inflationary pressures resurface in major economies.
However, some analysts, including Dr. Anas Al-Hajji, Energy Platform Editorial Advisor, dismiss the likelihood of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel in the near term, citing ample global supply, large strategic reserves, and planned production increases by OPEC+ countries in the coming months.
What This Means for Consumers
For consumers, particularly in energy-importing countries like Morocco, any tension affecting the Strait of Hormuz could quickly translate into higher fuel and diesel prices. Even a mere tweet or statement from an Iranian security official threatening to close the strait can trigger immediate price hikes.
Summary
The Iran-Israel conflict poses a greater and more dangerous threat to the stability of global oil markets than the Russia-Ukraine war, primarily due to the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz in global oil flows. Despite mitigating factors, markets remain on high alert amid expectations of increased volatility and rising prices in the coming days, necessitating close monitoring of regional developments and their economic repercussions worldwide.
