فاس نيوز ميديا جريدة الكترونية جهوية تعنى بشؤون و أخبار جهة فاس مكناس – متجددة على مدار الساعة
The Board of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), during its meeting held on Tuesday in Rabat, decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 2.25%. According to BAM’s statement following its second quarterly meeting of 2025, this decision was made “taking into account the inflation developments at levels consistent with the medium-term price stability objective, the marked acceleration of non-agricultural growth, and the anchoring of inflation expectations,” while considering “the significant uncertainties surrounding the outlook.”
BAM indicated that it will continue to closely monitor the transmission of recent rate cuts, particularly regarding financing conditions for very small, small, and medium-sized enterprises (VSEs, SMEs), and will base its future decisions on the most up-to-date data available.
Interest Rates and Financing Developments
The statement highlighted the ongoing reduction in borrowing rates on bank loans to the non-financial sector. Data from the first quarter of 2025 showed a cumulative decline of 45 basis points since the start of monetary easing in June 2024.
Annual Report and New Support Programs
During the session, the Board reviewed and approved the annual report on the economic, monetary, and financial situation of the country as well as the Bank’s activities for the 2024 fiscal year. It also reviewed the progress of the new support program for bank financing of very small enterprises, launched in March, and discussed the draft charter dedicated to this category of businesses. The charter includes provisions for tailored credit offers, simplified procedures, optimized guarantee systems, non-financial support, and monitoring mechanisms.
Economic Outlook and Projections
The Board analyzed the national and international economic situation and examined BAM’s medium-term macroeconomic projections. On the international front, the Board noted an exceptional level of uncertainty caused mainly by the new U.S. trade policies, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the armed conflict between Iran and Israel. In this context, global economic growth is expected to continue slowing, which would support the ongoing downward trend in inflation.
Domestically, recent data reveal a clear acceleration in non-agricultural activity, supported by investment in infrastructure, particularly within Morocco’s efforts to mitigate climate change impacts and prepare for hosting major international events by 2030. This notable improvement in non-agricultural growth is expected to sustain the tangible employment recovery observed in recent quarters.
Inflation and Food Prices
Inflation has significantly slowed in recent months, dropping from an average of 2% in the first quarter of 2025 to 0.7% in April and 0.4% in May. This mainly reflects the deceleration in food price increases, especially fresh meat. BAM projects inflation to average around 1% by the end of 2025, rising to 1.8% in 2026, with a similar trend expected for core inflation.
Risks and Challenges
These projections remain subject to significant uncertainties, notably external factors such as trade policies and geopolitical tensions, and domestic factors like the supply of agricultural products. The Board also noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored, with financial sector experts forecasting average rates of 2.3% over eight quarters and 2.5% over twelve quarters as of the second quarter of 2025.
National Growth and Sectoral Outlook
BAM expects national economic growth to accelerate to 4.6% in 2025 and stabilize at 4.4% in 2026. Agricultural value added is projected to increase by 5% in 2025, based on a cereal harvest estimated at 44 million quintals, and by 3.2% in 2026, assuming an average cereal production of 50 million quintals.
Non-agricultural sectors are expected to grow by approximately 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, mainly driven by strong infrastructure investment.
External Accounts and Public Finance
Trade is expected to strengthen over the medium term, with the direct impact of U.S. tariff measures remaining limited. Exports are projected to grow by 5.1% in 2025 and 9% in 2026, notably driven by phosphate and derivatives exports reaching 106.7 billion dirhams in 2026.
Conversely, due to unfavorable conditions in the European market, automobile industry sales are expected to stagnate in 2025 before a strong rebound in 2026, reaching 188 billion dirhams.
Imports are forecast to increase by 5.1% in 2025 and 7% in 2026, supported particularly by higher capital goods purchases, while the energy bill is expected to decrease further to 96 billion dirhams in 2026.
Tourism and Remittances
Tourism revenues are projected to continue strong performance, reaching 128.4 billion dirhams in 2026. Meanwhile, remittances from Moroccans residing abroad are expected to decline in 2025 before rising again to nearly 121 billion dirhams by the end of 2026.
Current Account and Foreign Direct Investment
The current account deficit is expected to remain contained at around 2% of GDP in 2025 and 2026. Foreign direct investment is projected to maintain an upward trend, reaching the equivalent of 3.5% of GDP in 2026.
Reserves, Liquidity, and Credit
Taking into account external Treasury financing, official reserves are expected to increase to 407 billion dirhams by the end of 2025 and 423.7 billion dirhams by the end of 2026, equivalent to about five and a half months of goods and services imports.
Regarding liquidity, the Board forecasts a reduction in the liquidity deficit to 122.5 billion dirhams by the end of 2025, before widening to 140 billion dirhams in 2026.
Bank credit to the non-financial sector is expected to accelerate significantly, growing by more than 6% in 2025 and 2026, compared to an average of 2.7% over the previous two years.
The real effective exchange rate is expected to remain nearly stable by the end of 2026, with an appreciation of 1.9% this year followed by a decline of 1.7% in 2026.
This comprehensive report reflects Bank Al-Maghrib’s outlook on Morocco’s economic, monetary, and financial situation, highlighting the challenges and opportunities amid evolving local and global conditions.
