IMF Predicts 3.9% Growth for Morocco’s Economy in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced on Monday the conclusion of its consultations with Morocco under Article IV of the IMF Agreement, projecting that Morocco’s economy will grow by 3.9% in 2025. This was revealed in a press statement issued by Roberto Cardarelli, head of the IMF mission that recently visited the Kingdom.

Cardarelli indicated that Morocco’s economy will benefit from a rebound in agricultural production following recent droughts, while the non-agricultural sector will continue to grow steadily due to strong domestic demand. He projected economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2024, accelerating to 3.9% in 2025.

This growth is expected to reduce the current account deficit to around 3% of GDP, with inflation stabilizing at 2%. However, the IMF cautioned that economic prospects still face challenges linked to geopolitical tensions and the impacts of climate change.

Regarding monetary policy, the IMF affirmed that Bank Al-Maghrib’s current neutral stance is appropriate for the time being, especially with inflation expected to stabilize at 2% and no significant demand pressures. Cardarelli added that any future adjustments to interest rates should be based on actual economic data.

The IMF commended Morocco’s recent tax reforms, which have helped broaden the tax base while reducing the tax burden. It noted that these reforms led to higher-than-expected tax revenues in 2024, contributing to a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 4.1% of GDP, compared to previous projections of 4.3%.

Cardarelli emphasized that the 2025 budget should continue to strengthen fiscal reforms, with any revenue surpluses used to accelerate the reduction of public debt. He also called for expanding the tax base and rationalizing public spending, particularly by reducing transfers to public institutions and extending the use of the unified social registry to all social programs.

The IMF praised the ongoing reform of the finance law, which aims to introduce a new fiscal rule based on a medium-term debt anchor. It noted significant progress in strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework, including assessing risks related to climate change.

Regarding job creation, the IMF recommended adopting a new approach to active labor market policies, focusing on supporting the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and integrating them into sectoral value chains. It also applauded the progress made under the Mohammed VI Investment Fund, which aims to provide necessary financing for these enterprises.

The IMF called for enhanced support for SMEs under the new investment charter, as well as strengthening regional investment centers. It also stressed the need to revise labor laws, the tax system, and the regulatory framework to ensure a level playing field between the public and private sectors.

During its visit, the IMF mission held meetings with senior Moroccan government officials, Bank Al-Maghrib, and representatives from the public and private sectors to discuss these projections and recommendations. The IMF reiterated the importance of continuing reforms to boost economic growth and improve citizens’ living conditions.

About محمد الفاسي