فاس نيوز ميديا جريدة الكترونية جهوية تعنى بشؤون و أخبار جهة فاس مكناس – متجددة على مدار الساعة
Russia is positioning itself as a mediator in the Sahara conflict, as indicated by recent statements from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. While criticizing the United States’ monopoly over the issue, the Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed support for Morocco and advocates for a negotiated political solution. Is this a paradigm shift for Russia regarding this issue, or merely a redistribution of its diplomatic cards in the region? Insights from political analysts Abdelfattah El Fatihi and Driss Lagrini provide clarity.
On January 14 in Moscow, Foreign Minister Lavrov emphasized Russia’s willingness to support Morocco in addressing its challenges, including foreign policy matters. He highlighted the organization of the Russian-Arab Cooperation Forum in Marrakech in December 2023 and stated that the diplomatic efforts of both countries have “good plans.” Lavrov underscored that Russia aims to “assist Moroccans in resolving the challenges concerning the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” particularly regarding the “Western Sahara” issue. In a significant development, he insisted that actions should be guided by UN Security Council resolutions.
A Significant Step Forward
According to political analyst Abdelfattah El Fatihi, this “major advancement” was announced during the traditional conference presenting the results of Russian diplomacy for 2024, which also outlines the roadmap for the following year. The director of the Sahara and Africa Center for Strategic Studies observes that “Russia’s position, previously aligned with Algeria, now seems to harmonize with the general direction of the UN Security Council and General Assembly.”
“Now, Russia’s position is moving towards strengthening cooperation with Morocco as a friendly country, particularly as a gateway to Africa, crucial for enhancing Russian-African economic relations,” analyzes the expert. When the Russian minister states that Russia is helping Morocco, it implicitly means that “Russia is no longer concerned with a referendum solution but rather with a concerted political solution,” details the Sahel and Sahara issues expert.
Redistribution of Diplomatic Cards?
“The goal of Russia is to have a say rather than allowing the United States to monopolize the issue,” comments the political analyst. He notes that Lavrov’s stance may anticipate Donald Trump’s actions regarding his promises before elections, particularly concerning the Ukrainian conflict and other bilateral issues.
While he welcomes that “Russia is no longer opposed to a political solution to the conflict based on the autonomy initiative, as demanded by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov calling for mutual agreement between both parties,” the analyst believes that Lavrov does not hide that Russia “is using the Sahara issue as leverage in its conflict with the United States, opposing Washington’s unilateral vision of an imposed solution without reaching an agreement.”
The Return of American Imperialism!
The Russian Foreign Minister indeed raised the Sahara issue while criticizing what he termed a return of “American imperialism.” He remarked that “the American administration under Donald Trump simply decreed that Western Sahara belongs to Morocco. Now we are talking about Greenland and the Panama Canal.”
“Of course, resolving such issues unilaterally means creating a storm that will undoubtedly erupt again after some time,” warned the diplomat in response to questions from scientists in Saint Petersburg about Russian-Moroccan relations, where they described Morocco as “the gateway to Africa.”
Explaining Russia’s vision regarding relations with Morocco, this seasoned diplomat emphasized that “mutually acceptable agreements must be sought.”
Mutual Agreement
“We know how important this is for Morocco. We will try to provide all kinds of assistance. However, you can only resolve this problem based on mutual consent and not impose something on one party,” he asserted.
Setting aside US-Russian rivalry and significant global geopolitical stakes, El Fatihi highlights that Moroccan diplomacy appears to benefit from Russia’s improved position, given that it would now support a political solution while leaving behind previous approaches.
This paradigm shift, according to analysts, results from what King Mohammed VI has accomplished since his visit to Russia in 2015 and from trade and maritime cooperation agreements, notably a fishing agreement that includes southern provinces signed between both countries.
Opportunities and Choices
Political analyst Driss Lagrini emphasizes that “today’s Russia is aware of the opportunities offered by an advanced partnership with Morocco, especially as a gateway to strengthen its relations with a strategic African space.” This comes at a time when there is growing global interest in Africa from other powers such as the United States, France, and China.
Focusing on reasons for this gradual change in position, Lagrini believes that “Russian positions have been shaped by evolving Security Council decisions to such an extent that major powers, including China and Russia, have abandoned the thesis linking conflict resolution to a referendum since Morocco presented its advanced autonomy plan for Saharan regions in 2007.”
Negotiated Solution: The Preferred Path
Highlighting Russia’s evolving position towards a negotiated political solution, Lagrini points out that its stance on the autonomy plan remains “based on negotiation” and seeks to “balance various claims and choices regarding independence or unity under Moroccan sovereignty.”
In this context, he explains that Russia could find itself in a delicate position if its actions harm its relations with actors like France or the United States.
“If Russia’s position continues to overlook developments in Moroccan-Russian relations as well as the dynamics of the autonomy plan and Security Council decisions since 2007, it risks international isolation on this issue given the increasing importance of Saharan affairs,” warns Lagrini.
Rejection of Independence Choices
In analyzing possible projections in light of Lavrov’s recent statements, university professor believes that a pro-Moroccan stance from Russia now seems evident.
“Especially when there is widespread rejection of independence choices. Countries like China and Russia cannot encourage separatist claims since they themselves face separatist issues,” he explains, recalling how Russia has suffered from separatist movements in some of its 21 republics since the 1990s.
Butterfly Effect
He also highlights the butterfly effect created by Donald Trump’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Sahara at the end of 2020. “On another note, American support for the autonomy plan—as well as France’s support—strengthens this position,” he adds. “The same goes for Great Britain, which is increasingly aligning itself with a position favorable to Morocco’s territorial integrity.”
These factors compel us not to be pessimistic especially since Russia aims to strengthen its relations with Africa.
The Key to Tripartite Cooperation
These successes and many others are fruits of royal diplomacy based on diversifying strategic partners for Morocco and realizing tripartite cooperation concepts with various partners, particularly members of the Sahara club.
Just like France—whose responsibility regarding this issue is well established—and which has recently sought to catch up after years of contention—Russia now seeks “to maintain its position within any proposed solution while considering itself a key player among friends of Sahara (the permanent members of UN Security Council excluding China but including Spain),” concludes El Fatihi.
