Senior diplomatic sources in New York have revealed significant shifts in the international approach to the Sahara issue, ahead of the anticipated vote on the Security Council resolution regarding the renewal of MINURSO’s mandate in October 2024.
The sources highlighted that Spain’s position supporting the autonomy proposal, as the former colonial power, represents a fundamental shift in the international approach to the conflict. They also noted that French support, reinforced by anticipated significant investments, along with positions from the United States and other countries, creates unprecedented diplomatic momentum.
In the security context, sources emphasized that increasing instability in the Sahel region underscores the urgent need for resolving the Sahara conflict, which is now viewed as a pivotal element in regional security.
The sources indicated that the Security Council continues to reference the roundtable process (2018-2019), affirming the quadripartite approach that includes Algeria as a key party. The consultations held in March 2023 are considered a model for inclusive approaches that have led to tangible progress.
Regarding diplomatic communications, they included veiled warnings to the Polisario regarding its responsibility for breaking the ceasefire in 2020, with the Security Council establishing a direct link between regional stability and economic development prospects in the Sahel-Saharan space.
The source concluded that these new dynamics, coupled with regional security challenges, may pave the way for resolving the conflict based on Morocco’s autonomy initiative, especially with growing international support for the Moroccan position.
The evolving situation suggests a possible shift towards resolution as international backing for Morocco’s position continues to strengthen within the UN framework, particularly as regional stability concerns mount.