Saudi Arabia Faces the Dilemma of Normalization with Israel

Saudi Arabia finds itself at a sensitive crossroads regarding the normalization of its relations with Israel, as the war between Israel and Hamas appears to be nearing its end and Donald Trump prepares to reclaim his position in the White House. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had initiated negotiations in 2020 for rapprochement with Israel, in exchange for a defense agreement with the United States and American assistance for a civilian nuclear program. However, these talks were suspended following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza after the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023.

As the largest economy in the Arab world and custodian of Islam’s two holiest sites, Saudi Arabia has expressed support for the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas while emphasizing the need for a complete Israeli withdrawal from Palestinian territories. According to Firas Maksad, a researcher at the Middle East Institute, the minimum condition for any normalization remains the establishment of a credible and irreversible process towards the creation of a Palestinian state.

Despite pressures to move toward normalization, Riyadh must proceed cautiously, as a significant portion of the Saudi population remains sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. The war in Gaza, which has resulted in nearly 50,000 Palestinian deaths, has intensified rejection of any rapprochement with Israel. In September, the crown prince stated that his country would not establish diplomatic relations with Israel before the creation of a Palestinian state.

With Trump’s return to power, he appears determined to conclude what he calls “the deal of the century,” promoting normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, Riyadh must advance carefully after having taken a clear public stance on this issue. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has recently strengthened its ties with Iran, which represents a setback for both Israel and the United States.

While Israel shows interest in normalizing relations with Riyadh, its government remains opposed to the two-state solution sought by much of the international community. Trump’s return could complicate negotiations over a defense pact with Riyadh, which would require support from Democratic voices in the Senate.

Some analysts believe that a limited form of normalization may be possible, characterized by diplomatic recognition without significant trade or cultural exchanges. History shows that even when agreements have been signed, as was the case between Egypt and Jordan, they have not succeeded in convincing their populations that peace with Israel was beneficial.

In conclusion, Saudi Arabia faces a complex dilemma: advancing toward normalization with Israel while maintaining its commitment to the Palestinian cause. Without a clear roadmap for a two-state solution, any attempt at rapprochement may remain out of reach.

About محمد الفاسي