The Council of Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), during its third meeting of 2024 held on Tuesday in Rabat, decided to maintain the key interest rate unchanged at 2.75%.
In a statement, the central bank explained that the Council deemed it appropriate to maintain the current monetary policy stance while continuing to closely monitor developments in the economic and social situation.
The bank noted that the inflation rate has remained at moderate levels since the beginning of the year, primarily reflecting lower prices of volatile food products and a slowdown in core inflation. The overall inflation rate is expected to decelerate from 6.1% in 2023 to 1.3% this year, before accelerating to 2.5% in 2025.
Regarding national economic growth, BAM projects a slowdown from 3.4% in 2023 to 2.8% this year, before rebounding to 4.4% in 2025. This slowdown in 2024 is attributed to an expected 6.9% contraction in agricultural value-added.
On the external accounts front, the current account deficit is expected to stabilize at 1.4% of GDP in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025, compared to 0.6% in 2023. Foreign direct investment revenues are projected to rise to the equivalent of 3.1% of GDP in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.
Concerning monetary conditions, bank liquidity needs are expected to continue widening, with projections of accelerated growth in bank credit to the non-financial sector to 3.3% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025.
In terms of public finances, budget execution for the first eight months of 2024 showed an improvement in ordinary revenues of 11.2%, driven mainly by the notable performance of tax revenues. According to BAM’s projections, the budget deficit is expected to stabilize at around 4.4% of GDP in 2024 before decreasing to 3.9% in 2025.