فاس نيوز ميديا جريدة الكترونية جهوية تعنى بشؤون و أخبار جهة فاس مكناس – متجددة على مدار الساعة
US President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on a long list of countries, including Morocco with a rate of 10%. What will be the impact of this “punitive” measure on a bilateral trade balance already skewed in favor of the United States? Economists Lahcen Haddad and Mohammed Benchakroun provide insights.
On Wednesday, Donald Trump announced a “major trade war” that will mark a turning point in global economic relations, unveiling a series of punitive tariffs targeting countries worldwide, including some of his trade partners. Among them is Morocco, with which the United States has a Free Trade Agreement (USMFTA) in effect since 2006.
This high-risk move is certain to impact bilateral trade, further exacerbating the trade deficit in favor of the United States.
While Moroccan imports from the United States totaled $5.3 billion in 2024, registering a 37.3% increase compared to 2023, Moroccan exports to the United States were limited to $1.9 billion last year (up 12.3% from 2023). Thus, the trade deficit amounted to more than $3.4 billion, with a significant increase of 57.1% compared to 2023, and could widen further in the current fiscal year.
A Harsh Blow to Export Competitiveness
Economist Mohammed Benchakroun believes that this measure will have a negative impact on the Moroccan economy, as our exports are mainly composed of low value-added products, such as textiles, agri-food, and certain automotive parts.
“These sectors are very sensitive to price elasticity: when a tariff increases the cost of Moroccan products, they become less competitive in the US market, leading to a decrease in exports. In 2023, our exports to the United States were about 15 billion dirhams. Additional taxation could reduce this volume and impact employment, particularly in the textile sector, which represents 27% of industrial jobs in Morocco,” the expert anticipates.
A Potential Opportunity?
However, Benchakroun notes that the impact of this tax could be mitigated by the fact that this trade war affects several countries, explaining that “our international competitors will also be penalized, which limits the relative impact on Morocco.” Moreover, this situation could encourage Moroccan companies to diversify their markets towards Europe or Africa, reducing their dependence on the United States, he suggests.
“In reality, the trade deficit between Morocco and the United States is already significant, even without this protectionist measure. Our imports from the United States far exceed our exports, due to our heavy reliance on hydrocarbons, industrial equipment, and American technological products,” the economist recalls, predicting that “the introduction of these tariffs will only confirm an existing imbalance, without fundamentally altering its structure.”
Morocco Relatively Spared
The university professor notes a “positive point” that could be an opportunity for Moroccan exporters. “Compared to other countries, Morocco has been relatively spared, especially since some US trade partners are experiencing much higher tariff increases, which means that our exporters remain in a more advantageous position than other competitors in the US market,” he emphasizes, adding that “this context could even be an opportunity to strengthen our competitiveness by exploring new segments or improving the quality of our exported products.”
Thus, “if these tariffs represent a challenge for Moroccan exporters, they should be seen as an opportunity to accelerate the upgrading of products and strengthen trade partnerships with other regions of the world.”
A Mutually Beneficial FTA
Economist Lahcen Haddad analyzes trade relations between Rabat and Washington in light of the recent decision, as well as the history of trade since the entry into force of the Free Trade Agreement (USMFTA) in 2006, which “has significantly strengthened economic ties between the two countries.”
According to the 2nd Vice-President of the House of Councillors, “the elimination of tariffs on the vast majority of products, particularly in key sectors for US exports such as machinery, information technology, and textiles, reflects a mutually beneficial market opening.” However, he points out that at the US level, “challenges persist in the form of non-tariff barriers—such as the complexity of customs procedures, regulatory ambiguity, or restrictions on prepayment conditions—which hinder the full implementation of the agreement’s potential.”
Legitimate Protection
Haddad recalls that “the United States also expresses concerns about the application of intellectual property rights and certain sanitary measures deemed restrictive to trade,” specifying that “these criticisms, while having some legitimacy in the context of facilitating trade, should not obscure the overall success of the agreement in terms of trade flows and bilateral investment.”
From Morocco’s point of view, many of these so-called “barriers” respond to broader strategic priorities: preserving public health (through sanitary standards), protecting foreign exchange reserves (by capping advance payments), or aligning with global environmental standards (such as Euro 6 emissions for vehicles), Haddad recalls.
Avoiding Disruption of Partnership Balance
Haddad affirms that Morocco has demonstrated a constant willingness to implement the agreement in good faith, while juggling the realities of development, regulatory reforms, and regional dynamics. “US calls for further liberalization should therefore be attentive to Morocco’s domestic policy imperatives and its sovereign right to regulate, particularly in areas related to the public interest,” emphasizes this member of the Istiqlal economist circle, calling for “constructive dialogue, within the framework of the Joint Committee provided for by the agreement.”
This dialogue “remains the most appropriate way to address these concerns without disrupting the balance of the partnership,” the former minister concludes.
