فاس نيوز ميديا جريدة الكترونية جهوية تعنى بشؤون و أخبار جهة فاس مكناس – متجددة على مدار الساعة
On Sunday, December 8, 2024, Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria collapsed unexpectedly, ending five decades of Assad family rule. This collapse came as a result of a lightning offensive launched by opposition groups led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Analyzing the current situation, Yassine El Yattioui, Secretary-General of NejMaroc and an expert in international relations, institutional politics, geopolitics, and diplomacy, points out that the Syrian crisis, which erupted in 2011 in the wake of the Arab revolutions, has entered a critical phase threatening the country’s disintegration, similar to what happened in Libya after Gaddafi’s fall.
Since November 2024, opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have managed to control large areas of Syrian territory, including the cities of Aleppo, Hama, and Homs, with a direct threat to the capital, Damascus. This rapid advance has exposed the fragility of the regime, which was already suffering from a depleted economy, internal divisions, and declining international support.
The Assad regime, which had succeeded in stabilizing the situation thanks to Russian military intervention in 2015, now faces a perfect storm. Moscow’s focus on the war in Ukraine has led to a reduction in resources allocated to Syria, while Iran, the other major ally, is preoccupied with its internal crises and international pressures.
Meanwhile, internal divisions in Syria are deepening. The Kurds, who control large areas in the northeast of the country, continue to demand expanded autonomy or even independence. Recurring demonstrations in Daraa, where the Syrian revolution began in 2011, confirm the ongoing rejection of central authority.
Estimates indicate that about 80% of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line, and more than 12 million people are displaced inside or outside the country. An escalation of fighting would exacerbate this situation, leading to new waves of displacement and undermining humanitarian aid efforts.
Analysts warn that the fragmentation of Syrian territory could create an environment conducive to the resurgence of jihadist groups such as the Islamic State, threatening regional and international stability. To avoid a disintegration scenario, several paths must be explored, including an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire, inclusive negotiations involving all concerned parties, and a renewed commitment from the international community to support the process of national reconciliation and reconstruction.
In conclusion, Syria is at a critical juncture that threatens its disintegration, similar to post-Gaddafi Libya. Without coordinated intervention from the international community and comprehensive dialogue between local parties, the country faces the risk of sliding into a more destructive spiral of violence, threatening peace and security in the region and beyond.
