In its latest report on fiscal policy, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that the public debt ratio has not changed significantly, remaining stable at 93% since 2023.
However, the absolute value of this debt continues to rise, with expectations that it will reach 100% by 2030, representing a ten-percentage-point increase compared to 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
On another note, data revealed that private sector debt for households and non-financial corporations reached 146% of global GDP by the end of 2023, according to the IMF report.
During an online press conference, Ira Dabal Norris, Assistant Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, expressed concern that the situation could be worse than anticipated.
She pointed out that debt estimates often tend to be overly optimistic, as governments may be overly hopeful about their economic growth or fail to implement necessary fiscal reforms.
Despite many countries announcing fiscal corrections, this does not necessarily guarantee a reduction in public debt, even if the correction is fully implemented.
Major economic powers, such as the United States and China, continue to record ongoing increases in their debts without any signs of changing this trend.
To effectively reduce public debt, a fiscal correction exceeding 3.8% of total GDP annually until the end of the decade is required, while the current target is set at only 1%.
Additionally, significant cuts in public spending could have substantial negative impacts on economic growth unless carefully considered decisions are made, as such cuts may widen social gaps and lead to increased levels of indebtedness.
The IMF emphasized the importance of rebuilding the fiscal space of countries adversely affected by consecutive crises since the onset of the pandemic, enabling them to face any future economic challenges.
Furthermore, it called for substantial investments to address climate change and empower communities to adapt to its effects.
In this context, rising interest rates over the past three years have negatively impacted the public finances of many countries, leading to increased costs of borrowing.
The World Bank has confirmed that approximately forty countries are currently facing or are close to facing a debt crisis due to rising debt servicing costs.
source: fesnews media